Stale-Pupa-Marines
0xea342baf63b6812afc4790aa37328955a4595630
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$285.29
Total PnL
$-111.71
Realised
$-97.28
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
58 shares @ 79.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$45.26
$-0.64
- NO
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 82.7¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
50 shares @ 68.5¢·now 80.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.42
$6.17
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 70.3¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.20
$1.07
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 73.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.40
$-5.80
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 43.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.30
$1.00
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
23 shares @ 65.8¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.30
$0.39
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?
50 shares @ 41.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.75
$-8.75
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 30.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.80
$-1.20
- YES
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill ConAgra Brands say "Collaboration" during earnings call?$0.99Jul 10, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ConAgra Brands say "Collaboration" during earnings call?$2.69Jul 10, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$10.04Jul 10, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$25.58Jul 10, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$8.63Jul 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$0.38Jul 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$40.32Jul 10, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$10.72Jul 10, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$9.40Jul 10, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$19.01Jul 10, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$20.75Jul 10, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$5.89Jul 10, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill International Business Machines (IBM) Q2 Software revenue be above $8.5B?$4.60Jul 10, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$0.28Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$6.21Jul 10, 00:26 UTC
- MERGEWill Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?$20.00Jul 10, 00:01 UTC
- MERGEIran full airspace closure by August 31?$20.00Jul 10, 00:01 UTC
- MERGEWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$40.00Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- MERGEWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?$49.99Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $9.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 09:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 05:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.