Obvious-Seminar
0xea3af921df27715a92f2ab656899736dfbc74eeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-450.29
Realised
$-490.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3063 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.0K
$45.67
- NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
719 shares @ 96.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$711.32
$15.97
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$485.00
$10.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
131 shares @ 92.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$125.78
$4.58
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.80
$-0.20
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
114 shares @ 4.4¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.74
$0.74
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
1450 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24?
26 shares @ 38.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
17 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13?$121.38Jun 13, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$10.10Jun 13, 16:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$6.67Jun 13, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$2.06Jun 13, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$2.05Jun 13, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.05Jun 13, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.03Jun 13, 15:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.69Jun 13, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.03Jun 13, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$12.60Jun 13, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.05Jun 13, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$10.56Jun 13, 07:55 UTC
- REDEEMUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5$6.49Jun 13, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13?$100.01Jun 13, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13?$20.05Jun 13, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5$5.03Jun 13, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMCanada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5$32.61Jun 12, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5$30.07Jun 12, 19:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12?$26.29Jun 12, 16:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $17.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.