Pessimistic-Bond
0xea425a0023b71b7d28eebbe967af57112b4b0191
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.81
Total PnL
$-10.26
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
203 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.81
$-0.22
- YES
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Stelian Bujduveanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
620 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.24
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31?
260 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Siaosi Sovaleni be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
233 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.70
- YES
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
230 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?
220 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMTea FDV above $150M one day after launch$39.66Jun 4, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTea FDV above $150M one day after launch$39.51Jun 4, 14:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?$1.41Jun 1, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?$1.31Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $40 in May?$6.20Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?$4.02Jun 1, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?$1.11Jun 1, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$5.87Jun 1, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$7.51May 31, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$12.42May 31, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$12.40May 30, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.40May 30, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$8.42May 30, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?$2.22May 29, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $40 in May?$1.04May 10, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?$1.11May 10, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.15May 10, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$4.30May 10, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?$1.40May 10, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.10May 10, 01:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $6.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 23:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 22:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".