Pessimistic-Bond
0xea425a0023b71b7d28eebbe967af57112b4b0191
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$13.63
Total PnL
$-10.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.81
$0.01
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.81
$0.01
- NO
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.60
$0.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.50
$0.00
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.40
$-0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.31
$0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.10
$-0.00
- YES
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
203 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.30
$-0.73
- YES
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?$1.10Jul 23, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.50Jul 22, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.30Jul 21, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?$1.40Jul 21, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.60Jul 17, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?$1.30Jul 16, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.50Jul 13, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.80Jul 3, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $700 in July?$1.80Jul 2, 12:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?$1.31Jul 1, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?$2.01Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?$2.71Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.54Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?$4.31Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?$10.03Jun 30, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?$7.78Jun 30, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$6.73Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$6.70Jun 29, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?$2.70Jun 29, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?$2.00Jun 28, 21:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $6.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 01:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 20:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.