Damp-Brushfire
0xea4c84c70b39ed645632a299eb262375f656f3b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$37.74
Total PnL
$-28.73
Realised
$9.73
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?
20 shares @ 97.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.39
$-0.17
- NO
Will Allison Janney – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?
20 shares @ 97.1¢·now 90.6¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$18.13
$-1.29
- YES
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?
20 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.13
$-0.09
- NO
Will anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?
10 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.10
$0.01
- YES
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week?
60 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 10?
50 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week?
40 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week?
40 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week?
40 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will "Inflation" be in the headlines this week?
40 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" this week?$0.22Jul 11, 13:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?$18.55Jul 11, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?$0.09Jul 11, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?$18.60Jul 11, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?$0.09Jul 11, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?$0.09Jul 11, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by July 31?$0.27Jul 11, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?$19.56Jul 11, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by July 31?$0.24Jul 11, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon post "Texas" on X this week?$0.63Jul 11, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Allison Janney – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?$19.42Jul 11, 06:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?$0.29Jul 11, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Chart" during Rick and Morty E8 S9?$0.30Jul 11, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?$18.94Jul 11, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on X this week?$18.98Jul 11, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$0.48Jul 11, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$0.70Jul 11, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$7.86Jul 11, 02:30 UTC
- REWARD$14.45Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 10?$0.15Jul 10, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 08:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 13:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.