Watchful-Portrait
0xea4f0e99cba0631fd17952c35465a977d450613f
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$-229.82
Win rate
42%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
782 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-38.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?
705 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-189.31
- OVER
Malmo FF vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 3.5
595 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-392.76
- YES
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?
548 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?
524 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?
500 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Spain?
427 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-75.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
405 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
400 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-320.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$2.89Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-07-26?$1.15Jul 26, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMalmo FF vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 3.5$399.44Jul 26, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Brann vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw?$50.05Jul 26, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-07-26?$450.21Jul 26, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-07-26?$610.52Jul 26, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw?$20.90Jul 26, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-07-26?$1.01Jul 26, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-07-26?$267.89Jul 26, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-07-26?$364.22Jul 26, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-07-26?$571.40Jul 26, 11:45 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5$571.50Jul 26, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5$417.24Jul 26, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Wuhan San Zhen FC 1 - 0 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC?$417.30Jul 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Wuhan San Zhen FC 1 - 0 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC?$313.15Jul 25, 13:51 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.45Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$100.51Jul 23, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$103.50Jul 23, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$34.33Jul 23, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$155.50Jul 23, 05:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $154.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 11:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.