Concrete-Reasoning
0xea5b1f2e7f8df60ade1a55c21b23dd3bf2e78827
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$1.00
Total PnL
$-1.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$1.00Nov 13, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 18?$1.03Nov 13, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $180 on November 13?$1.00Nov 13, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ariana Grande be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$401.46Nov 13, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ariana Grande be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$401.86Nov 13, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$1.00Oct 1, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$103.86Oct 1, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$103.97Oct 1, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$103.97Oct 1, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$104.08Oct 1, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?$1.00Sep 17, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine hits Moscow by July 31?$1.00Sep 17, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 18?$1.00Sep 17, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$98.56Sep 17, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$98.66Sep 17, 06:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$98.66Sep 17, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$98.77Sep 17, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by July 31?$1.00Aug 2, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$101.78Aug 2, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$101.89Aug 2, 11:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $75.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 24, 14:25 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 13, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.