0xea6fe653975b0a1820174d51090dc4eda974427a
0xea6fe653975b0a1820174d51090dc4eda974427a
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$169.73
Total PnL
$-443.75
Realised
$-174.73
Win rate
9%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 27?
169 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$168.61
$0.81
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 28?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$1.11
$0.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28?
29199 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-70.46
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
15667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-31.87
- YES
Will Solana reach $210 in January?
9998 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
9500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
8000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
6500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
2833 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - January 16, 6AM ET$0.00Feb 4, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6AM ET$0.00Jan 30, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 19, 4PM ET$0.00Jan 30, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7AM ET$0.00Jan 30, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - January 16, 6AM ET$0.00Jan 30, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29?$0.00Jan 30, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 27?$0.00Jan 30, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 27?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be less than $2,400 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 29?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 29?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28?$0.00Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 28, 05:12 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 4, 17:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.