Scholarly-Schema
0xeaa50d752f445e16fcc41e9b2ff391969d8688b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$80.70
Total PnL
$-24.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
31 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$30.69
$0.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?
12 shares @ 82.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$10.12
$0.18
- NO
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$9.95
$0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?
12 shares @ 82.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$9.88
$-0.06
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.61
$2.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14?
59 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.01
$-4.42
- NO
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
36 shares @ 54.1¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.15
$-15.39
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 13?
86 shares @ 10.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$3.89
$-5.49
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.39
$-2.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?$10.11Jul 10, 23:11 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$0.00Jul 10, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?$0.19Jul 10, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 10?$0.00Jul 10, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?$10.00Jul 10, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14?$10.03Jul 10, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$2.79Jul 10, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$2.79Jul 10, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$2.40Jul 10, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$1.99Jul 10, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?$10.11Jul 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$2.79Jul 10, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$2.79Jul 10, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$5.60Jul 10, 16:36 UTC
- MERGES&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$26.02Jul 10, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$7.68Jul 10, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 10?$41.58Jul 10, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 13?$10.01Jul 10, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?$10.01Jul 10, 15:42 UTC
- MERGESPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 10?$17.42Jul 10, 15:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 09:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 23:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.