Authorized-Navigation
0xeb50f95c6b56caf1a182ef55d1f9576ba007f025
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$166.31
Realised
$-6.80
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
2389 shares @ 18.6¢·now 32.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$780.08
$335.09
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
625 shares @ 40.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$240.81
$-9.19
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
86 shares @ 0.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$28.40
$28.40
- MONTREAL ALOUETTES
Ottawa Redblacks vs. Montreal Alouettes
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2026$1.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$0.88
$-0.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
216 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
132 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Athens Kallithéa FC win on 2026-08-17?
102 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
79 shares @ 63.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$25.61Aug 17, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$25.66Aug 17, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 21:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$48.33Aug 17, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.20Aug 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.16Aug 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.16Aug 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.16Aug 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.16Aug 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.30Aug 17, 21:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 21:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$30.82Aug 17, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$25.05Aug 17, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$30.20Aug 17, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.17Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.17Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$5.18Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $7.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 20:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 21:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.