Appropriate-Biplane
0xeb613e635f9fc30123dbd618f38a4c10697f329d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$15.77
Total PnL
$-82.58
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.77
$-0.03
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7?
928 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
833 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12?
557 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 8?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 27?
400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?
355 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?
243 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$15.80Jul 18, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5?$86.09Jun 8, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5?$86.00Jun 4, 12:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?$1.00Jun 3, 18:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2?$86.09Jun 2, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?$1.00Jun 2, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2?$86.01Jun 1, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?$86.09May 26, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?$86.00May 25, 10:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?$86.09May 20, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?$86.01May 19, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$86.09May 15, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$86.00May 13, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?$86.09May 13, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?$86.01May 8, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?$41.04May 8, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's video get between 74 and 75 million views on day 4?$45.05May 8, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?$41.00May 6, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 6?$1.00May 6, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's video get between 74 and 75 million views on day 4?$45.00May 6, 10:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $55.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 13:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 08:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.