Limping-Baggie-Technique
0xeb68675c06e0bb9f08ba510550912d77289ce362
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$425.65
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$55.25
Win rate
84%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?
159 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$158.60
$-0.08
- YES
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?
43 shares @ 11.1¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$41.28
$36.50
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?
50 shares @ 70.6¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$33.58
$-1.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 1?
14 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$13.94
$0.33
- NO
Will Carrie Baird win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.96
$9.96
- NO
Will Cate Meade win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.92
$9.92
- NO
Will Ara Zada win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.90
$9.90
- NO
Will James Peck win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.79
$-0.15
- NO
Will Logan Sandoval win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.79
$9.79
- NO
Will Sunny Moody win Chopped Castaways Season 1?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.79
$9.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?$0.03Jul 1, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 1?$0.68Jul 1, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 1?$0.05Jul 1, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 1?$4.86Jul 1, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?$2.03Jul 1, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?$0.02Jul 1, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?$0.02Jul 1, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 1?$5.01Jul 1, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 2?$5.35Jul 1, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 1?$1.05Jul 1, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?$2.50Jul 1, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 102-103°F on July 1?$0.04Jul 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 1?$4.34Jul 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 1?$0.38Jul 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 1?$0.01Jul 1, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 1?$0.02Jul 1, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 1?$0.69Jul 1, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Second half draw?$1.55Jul 1, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 2?$0.30Jul 1, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 1?$4.49Jul 1, 19:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 19:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 20:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.