Thick-Spotlight
0xeb9b2dcb83e95b96fdb592eba04587fd20191e2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$38.44
Total PnL
$-84.53
Realised
$4.79
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 29?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.77
$0.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.47
$0.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on July 30?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.00
$0.45
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.00
$0.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$3.34
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$3.02
$-0.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 29?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.82
$-0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 29?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.37
$-0.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 29?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.15
$0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.08
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 28?$1.99Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 28?$4.94Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?$3.36Jul 28, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 28?$6.31Jul 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?$2.36Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 28?$2.33Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?$1.00Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 28?$2.36Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?$2.29Jul 28, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 28?$2.48Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 28?$3.90Jul 28, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 30?$3.60Jul 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 28?$2.15Jul 28, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?$1.46Jul 28, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?$2.93Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 28?$2.37Jul 28, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on July 30?$0.23Jul 28, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on July 30?$3.32Jul 28, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 30?$3.35Jul 28, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 28?$3.05Jul 28, 06:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 08:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.