Illustrious-Yard
0xebb1573b8bec894b06e0db3e5586563d908de7af
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
168
Open notional
$87.75
Total PnL
$-4.9K
Realised
$-1.0K
Win rate
3%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 168- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?
100 shares @ 23.1¢·now 20.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$20.50
$-2.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 20?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$18.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 20?
50 shares @ 28.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$18.25
$3.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 20?
75 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$18.00
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?
100 shares @ 7.3¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$12.50
$5.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on March 27?
3305 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-37.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16?
2474 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-16.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 6?
1941 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-16.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on August 7?
1501 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-41.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 8?
1202 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$0.70Aug 19, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$0.70Aug 19, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?$23.99Aug 19, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 20?$21.61Aug 19, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 20?$19.45Aug 19, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$0.70Aug 19, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$2.44Aug 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$0.36Aug 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 20?$13.51Aug 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 20?$1.45Aug 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?$2.51Aug 19, 17:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 19?$56.34Aug 19, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?$126.18Aug 19, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$86.87Aug 19, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$3.17Aug 19, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$7.03Aug 19, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$0.88Aug 19, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$2.59Aug 19, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$4.83Aug 19, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?$16.02Aug 19, 07:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
143 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 03:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 19:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.