Antique-Brake
0xec346b35a2799d574cf65f43d8e0d9d3e276d61e
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.50
Total PnL
$-8.2K
Realised
$-16.15
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?
9500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-21.49
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
2171 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?
2117 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-37.60
- YES
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
2042 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
2000 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-31.91
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
1955 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
1906 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-297.06
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
1763 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-48.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$76.81Jul 21, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$7.00Jul 21, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$16.29Jul 21, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$0.71Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$56.59Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$22.05Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$5.33Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$0.59Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.88Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$8.52Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.75Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$2.65Jul 21, 13:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$285.99Jul 21, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$42.42Jul 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$23.88Jul 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$3.50Jul 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$29.74Jul 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$0.57Jul 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$28.08Jul 21, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.08Jul 21, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $14.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.