Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-10.6K

Realised

$-922.45

Win rate

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

XINYU WANG
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang
880 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-299.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
788 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-47.34
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
692 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-215.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
583 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YUFEI REN
Contrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren
578 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-125.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
538 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.38
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
523 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
523 shares @ 62.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-327.30
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
517 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-250.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
488 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-260.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.26Jul 7, 13:31 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$5.12Jul 7, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.24Jul 7, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.18Jul 7, 13:27 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.24Jul 7, 13:14 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.22Jul 7, 13:11 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.22Jul 7, 13:10 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$10.24Jul 7, 13:08 UTC
TRADEBUYContrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren$51.18Jul 7, 13:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$20.00Jul 4, 09:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$20.00Jul 4, 09:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$7.11Jul 4, 09:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.67Jul 4, 09:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$10.00Jul 4, 09:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$9.55Jul 4, 09:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$5.67Jul 4, 09:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$20.00Jul 4, 09:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$10.35Jul 4, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$5.57Jul 4, 09:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$20.00Jul 4, 09:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry52 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $9.22
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 07:56 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 13:31 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:22:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data