Long-Term-Memo
0xec70ae47089d85ef05bbb357a1431f1d9113ab91
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$93.78
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
25316 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-254.04
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
23208 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-64.66
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
1704 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-503.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany?
917 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
900 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-66.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
700 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-12.99
- YES
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany?
688 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $68 by end of February?
492 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-51.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany?$102.56Jun 25, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany?$112.90Jun 25, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany?$10.27Jun 25, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$13.34May 18, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$19.32May 3, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$3.18May 3, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$180.00Apr 30, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$356.46Apr 30, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$24.99Apr 20, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$3.81Apr 18, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$95.51Apr 18, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$9.50Apr 11, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$26.85Apr 8, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$0.45Apr 8, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$5.00Apr 8, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$17.70Apr 8, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.43Mar 29, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$0.91Mar 29, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$2.28Mar 29, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$5.02Mar 29, 02:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $15.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 20:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.