Shoddy-Formicarium
0xeca5a6e76590c6bd6a8182fc07e91017e384cf6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$5.61
Total PnL
$-42.95
Realised
$2.30
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6 shares @ 95.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.61
$0.24
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11?
6377 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-6.38
- YES
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 29?
5349 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on December 24?
5325 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 22?
2111 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 26?
2071 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20?
2068 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.60
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 20?
2059 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.58
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 17?
2057 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.57
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 13?
1807 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.42
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?$15.50Aug 14, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?$15.44Aug 13, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31?$15.49Jul 31, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 31?$15.46Jul 30, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 25?$12.57Jul 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 25?$12.55Jul 24, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 16?$15.69Jul 16, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 16?$15.63Jul 16, 05:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 3?$12.54Jul 3, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 3?$12.50Jul 2, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?$10.71Jun 30, 22:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June?$5.67Jun 30, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?$4.22Jun 26, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?$6.47Jun 26, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June?$5.65Jun 20, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15?$13.04Jun 15, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15?$13.00Jun 13, 05:51 UTC
- REWARD$0.68Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$0.96Jun 3, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31?$13.63Jun 1, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
9/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $375.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 03:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 16:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.