Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

98/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$5.0K

Total PnL

$396.84

Realised

$-93.90

Win rate

58%

26 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 66

YES
Will ADC Juan Pablo II College win on 2026-07-25?
875 shares @ 71.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$874.79
$250.01
NO
Will CA Paranaense vs. SC Internacional end in a draw?
203 shares @ 64.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$202.41
$71.85
YES
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-07-25?
199 shares @ 55.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$199.39
$89.15
NO
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Kansas City Current end in a draw?
199 shares @ 75.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$199.29
$48.66
NO
Will CD Santa Cruz win on 2026-07-25?
199 shares @ 84.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$197.91
$30.55
ALANA SMITH
Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith
195 shares @ 50.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$194.99
$95.96
NO
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-07-25?
198 shares @ 78.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$185.64
$30.86
OVER
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
165 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$164.58
$97.07
NO
Will Santos FC win on 2026-07-25?
198 shares @ 86.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$163.34
$-8.48
UNDER
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
197 shares @ 64.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$163.09
$37.33

Recent activity

TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5$75.40Jul 25, 23:21 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)$98.73Jul 25, 23:21 UTC
TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers$1.55Jul 25, 23:21 UTC
TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Minnesota Twins$70.44Jul 25, 23:21 UTC
MERGESpread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)$5.00Jul 25, 23:20 UTC
MERGEWill Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-07-25?$7.91Jul 25, 23:20 UTC
MERGEWill CD Huachipato vs. CD Cobresal end in a draw?$13.32Jul 25, 23:20 UTC
MERGEWill Santos FC win on 2026-07-25?$56.00Jul 25, 23:20 UTC
MERGEWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$203.58Jul 25, 23:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)$4.47Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$66.98Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$37.39Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)$38.94Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$23.95Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)$3.16Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5$3.21Jul 25, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$179.14Jul 25, 23:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Santos FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?$1.89Jul 25, 23:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill CD Cobresal win on 2026-07-25?$1.75Jul 25, 23:18 UTC
TRADEBUYWill CD Cobresal win on 2026-07-25?$0.41Jul 25, 23:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

58% win rate over 26 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence87 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $29.76
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 25, 23:10 UTC
Last active: Jul 25, 23:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 26 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 23:21:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data