Ambitious-Derrick
0xecb8802288a32dc36b43110b6f129d7df5d32a2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$28.14
Total PnL
$55.89
Realised
$182.83
Win rate
3%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?
25 shares @ 57.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$14.25
$0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 19?
22 shares @ 65.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$13.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will HULIGANI Win The International 2026?
201 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?
92 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 12?
51 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 9?
46 shares @ 32.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?
44 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-26.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10?
15 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 21?
7 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 19?$14.24Aug 17, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 19?$11.19Aug 17, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 19?$14.46Aug 17, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?$1.05Aug 17, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?$3.15Aug 17, 11:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?$33.85Aug 16, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?$14.30Aug 16, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?$37.93Aug 15, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?$12.26Aug 15, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?$22.38Aug 14, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?$1.05Aug 14, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?$22.46Aug 13, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?$1.02Aug 12, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?$1.02Aug 12, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 14?$22.47Aug 12, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 11, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 11, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 11, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?$1.02Aug 11, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 11?$37.60Aug 11, 21:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
38 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $8.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 22:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.