Improbable-Plaster
0xecbe80930aaaba34caea4c5268daf7c8fbe5fa9b
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$55.80
Total PnL
$-46.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
56 shares @ 80.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$55.80
$10.99
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV meet with Donald Trump in 2025?
56 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-45.92
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates
56 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates$11.16Feb 4, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$44.81Feb 4, 21:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesus Christ return in 2025?$1.41Feb 4, 21:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?$56.00Feb 4, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return in 2025?$1.37May 22, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV meet with Donald Trump in 2025?$45.92May 22, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?$8.40May 22, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring?$55.69May 22, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring?$55.63Feb 20, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Biden pardon SBF?$55.44Feb 20, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden pardon SBF?$53.50Jan 17, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biden pardon Diddy?$53.70Jan 17, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden pardon Diddy?$53.76Dec 31, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $76,000 on November 15?$53.75Dec 31, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $76,000 on November 15?$53.70Nov 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Republican win Montana Presidential Election?$21.15Nov 15, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$32.55Nov 3, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Republican win Montana Presidential Election?$20.96Oct 28, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLCrystal Palace wins the Premier League?$0.07Oct 13, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLCrystal Palace wins the Premier League?$7.41Oct 13, 00:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $12.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 6, 01:29 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 4, 21:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.