Memorable-Castanet
0xecc8b1562f4a521d0856e3f89c5bfa8bba969335
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$601.63
Total PnL
$-25.69
Realised
$16.52
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 29?
80 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$79.44
$1.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 29?
77 shares @ 95.8¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$75.62
$2.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 29?
63 shares @ 97.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$62.25
$1.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?
54 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$53.95
$0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 29?
43 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$43.27
$0.89
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 30?
37 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$36.12
$0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 29?
30 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.80
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 29?
30 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.79
$0.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 29?
30 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.75
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 30?
30 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$29.70
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$9.98Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$4.99Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$4.99Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?$3.20Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 29?$6.80Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on July 29?$6.24Jul 28, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?$12.74Jul 28, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?$6.81Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?$6.74Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?$3.75Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 29?$3.95Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$3.71Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$3.72Jul 28, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?$1.31Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?$0.09Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?$2.59Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on July 29?$3.27Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 29?$29.73Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?$6.97Jul 28, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$1.45Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.