Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

95/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$72.22

Total PnL

$6.27

Realised

$-2.49

Win rate

67%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

YES
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
15 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$15.01
$6.76
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
11 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$10.84
$0.90
NO
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$10.38
$0.38
NO
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
10 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$10.24
$0.27
NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$10.01
$0.02
NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$9.97
$0.03
NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
6 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$5.77
$0.40

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.07Jun 22, 09:32 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$1.01Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.36Jun 22, 09:24 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.12Jun 22, 09:18 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.15Jun 22, 08:04 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?$9.99Jun 22, 07:42 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$1.03Jun 22, 07:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$10.05Jun 22, 05:50 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$12.76Jun 22, 05:33 UTC
TRADESELLWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$0.90Jun 17, 16:42 UTC
TRADESELLWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$3.88Jun 17, 15:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$6.50Jun 17, 10:31 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$10.00Jun 17, 10:31 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$20.23Jun 17, 09:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$10.00Jun 17, 06:02 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$9.99Jun 17, 05:49 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$9.98Jun 17, 05:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$0.06Jun 17, 05:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$10.00Jun 17, 05:00 UTC
REDEEMUFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)$0.00Jun 15, 04:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

18/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry14 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk52 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $5.84
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 16:51 UTC
Last active: Jun 22, 09:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:10:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data