Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

116

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-465.73

Realised

$-17.74

Win rate

115 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 116

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
796 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
55 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$14.23Aug 22, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$5.13Aug 22, 11:42 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$5.17Aug 22, 11:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$7.94Aug 22, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.16Aug 22, 10:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$31.30Aug 22, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.17Aug 22, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.16Aug 22, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.30Aug 22, 10:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.27Aug 22, 10:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.18Aug 22, 10:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$7.14Aug 22, 10:06 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.32Aug 22, 10:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.07Aug 22, 10:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.15Aug 22, 10:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.26Aug 22, 10:00 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$16.40Aug 21, 10:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$13.55Aug 21, 10:01 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.15Aug 21, 10:01 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.21Aug 21, 10:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 115 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

115 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $5.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 15, 09:33 UTC
Last active: Aug 22, 11:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 115 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:09:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data