Ambitious-Eicosanoid
0xed2bde60e3de99a188df0d32e7c37d74c6bf92ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$56.73
Total PnL
$-906.66
Realised
$-3.26
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Colorado have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
40 shares @ 40.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2026$14.40
$-1.60
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.40
$0.40
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?
40 shares @ 47.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.40
$-11.40
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?
22 shares @ 45.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.29
$-3.64
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.10
$-1.90
- YES
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$4.30
$-0.70
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.20
$-2.20
- YES
Will Don't Be Dumb (A$AP Rocky) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
21 shares @ 38.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Feb 7, 2027$2.42
$-5.57
- YES
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in July?
12 shares @ 18.1¢·now 15.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.87
$-0.29
- YES
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?
20 shares @ 24.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.60
$-3.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$5.40Aug 13, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?$9.40Aug 13, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?$9.00Aug 13, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?$0.94Aug 13, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?$7.85Aug 13, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?$1.55Aug 13, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$8.24Aug 13, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?$8.00Aug 13, 00:56 UTC
- REWARD$4.36Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?$8.01Aug 12, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Patricia Mercado Castro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?$2.36Aug 12, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?$8.00Aug 12, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?$2.00Aug 12, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?$6.00Aug 12, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31?$5.00Aug 12, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?$4.80Aug 12, 00:05 UTC
- REWARD$4.12Aug 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in July?$0.16Aug 11, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils$5.00Aug 11, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?$8.60Aug 11, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $19.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 22:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.