Hopeful-Pear
0xed65c6c6fefde26c99da07b58f13ca18e10688a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-62.62
Realised
$-22.20
Win rate
4%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
28 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
13 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
8 shares @ 69.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
7 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
5 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
3 shares @ 59.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.78
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.92Aug 22, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.03Aug 22, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.07Aug 20, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.08Jul 14, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.04Jun 24, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.05Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.74Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.39Jun 24, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner$1.41Jun 24, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.02Jun 24, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?$1.01Jun 21, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner$1.01Jun 21, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$1.92Jun 18, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$1.03Jun 18, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.14Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$1.06Jun 2, 03:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.01May 31, 02:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.32May 30, 02:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $1.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 15:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.