Dependent-Convention
0xed88fd95f6c6981b4e077371ca3a4b7dc8f50dfd
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$183.45
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-35.26
Win rate
52%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
100 shares @ 32.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$99.10
$67.10
- YES
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
33333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$16.67
$-83.33
- YES
Will New York Jets win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
932 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jan 25, 2027$12.58
$-1.40
- YES
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
350 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.24
$3.50
- YES
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
100 shares @ 1.4¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$4.27
$2.86
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
282 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.95
$1.13
- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
309 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.56
$2.01
- YES
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup?
79 shares @ 4.4¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$3.33
$-0.16
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
501 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.26
$-0.25
- YES
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
92 shares @ 3.8¢·now 3.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$3.22
$-0.32
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.01Jul 17, 08:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
71 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $161.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.