Half-Carnation
0xeda59c2458d2fe4fc90d1760441aab115bbd211e
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$8.16
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
5 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.62
$0.12
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
2 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.41
$0.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
203 shares @ 71.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-145.63
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
200 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
200 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
200 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
200 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-96.56
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
200 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
200 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?$1.13May 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.40May 16, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$4.51May 16, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People's Bank of China not change rates in April?$2.27May 16, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.22May 16, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on April 5?$1.21May 16, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on April 5?$1.21Apr 4, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People's Bank of China not change rates in April?$2.20Apr 4, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.70Apr 4, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?$1.11Apr 4, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.80Apr 4, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$4.31Apr 4, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?$1.10Mar 21, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.60Mar 21, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$4.30Mar 21, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?$1.46Mar 21, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$3.26Mar 21, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?$10.30Mar 21, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?$1.40Feb 7, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$2.80Feb 7, 01:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $66.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 12:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".