Growing-Carnival
0xee0cdc53b0365b281dfaa2f0954e3ac06c4dc6b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-43.58
Realised
$3.55
Win rate
79%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 34-35°F on April 18?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on April 22?
80 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 18?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 21?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on April 22?
80 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 21?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on April 19?
76 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 20?
75 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 21°F or below on April 20?
60 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 22°C on April 19?
59 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 23?$0.81May 4, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?$0.88May 4, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?$2.87May 4, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 23?$2.88May 4, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 22?$3.11May 4, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C on April 22?$0.01Apr 23, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 39°C or higher on April 22?$0.01Apr 23, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 23?$0.03Apr 23, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 23?$0.01Apr 23, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 23?$0.01Apr 23, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on April 23?$0.01Apr 23, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 23?$0.04Apr 23, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on April 23?$0.01Apr 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on April 23?$0.00Apr 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 23?$0.02Apr 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on April 23?$0.00Apr 23, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 23?$0.01Apr 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 23?$0.03Apr 23, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 23?$0.00Apr 23, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 23?$0.00Apr 23, 07:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.
53 closed markets, 79% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 23, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 4, 16:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.