Happy-Go-Lucky-Mug
0xee4a3d2037c3c27c0d4e7debb54baf123f431132
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$259.07
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
443 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-230.44
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
386 shares @ 77.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
336 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
250 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
246 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
245 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET
242 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-61.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
227 shares @ 39.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
165 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-89.11
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
142 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-32.72
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$1.04Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$59.36Jul 20, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$13.88Jul 20, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$0.85Jul 20, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$11.20Jul 20, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.40Jul 20, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$10.31Jul 20, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$39.32Jul 20, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$33.39Jul 20, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$526.55Jul 20, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$410.36Jul 20, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$3.09Jul 20, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$3.09Jul 20, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$3.01Jul 20, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$61.47Jul 20, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$40.38Jul 20, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$13.36Jul 20, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$4.95Jul 20, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$4.95Jul 20, 14:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $54.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 10:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.