Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$-306.52

Win rate

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 29

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
1292 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-628.90
OVER
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners
589 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
OVER
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners
458 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
OVER
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 12.5 Total Corners
398 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
OVER
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners
256 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-38.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
244 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
220 shares @ 50.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-110.54
YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26?
194 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-0.39
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
39 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$15.65Jul 10, 04:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 04:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$26.15Jul 10, 04:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$3.07Jul 10, 04:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$9.35Jul 10, 04:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$9.40Jul 10, 04:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$21.19Jul 10, 04:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$9.37Jul 10, 04:40 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
REDEEMWill New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 8, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury AND Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5$144.45Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners$39.38Jul 7, 12:08 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$102.35Jul 7, 12:07 UTC
TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Belgium: O/U 12.5 Total Corners$102.25Jul 6, 22:19 UTC
TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$203.96Jul 6, 22:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$29.92Jun 29, 13:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$310.71Jun 29, 13:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$310.86Jun 29, 13:19 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$138.33Jun 29, 13:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$206.91Jun 29, 13:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $220.45
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 1, 20:23 UTC
Last active: Jul 10, 04:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:26:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data