Untrue-Winner
0xeeb1ede6052eef8c829b8e30309441fba3febf68
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$763.53
Win rate
50%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
25936 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-483.32
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 3?
10400 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-135.20
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?
10000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will Agibot have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?
9362 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-538.88
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?
8244 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-257.45
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?
8008 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-40.03
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?
6667 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-45.33
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
6224 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.15
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
6163 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-187.41
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?
5827 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-193.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$12.80Jun 12, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$12.54Jun 11, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$128.25Jun 2, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$2.91Jun 2, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$142.99Jun 2, 05:52 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.52Jun 2, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$5.14Jun 1, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 15, 2026?$112.28Jun 1, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$354.18Jun 1, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$147.49Jun 1, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$12.51Jun 1, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$88.39Jun 1, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$9.30Jun 1, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$52.30Jun 1, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$140.00Jun 1, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$26.42Jun 1, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$3.05Jun 1, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$359.00Jun 1, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$57.76Jun 1, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$110.00Jun 1, 13:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $105.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 16:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 09:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.