Wallet digest

active

Activity score

75/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$11.1K

Total PnL

$-41.5K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
3302 shares @ 85.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$3.3K
$484.04
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
1821 shares @ 85.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$1.8K
$265.48
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
1655 shares @ 71.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$1.7K
$470.78
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
1280 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$1.3K
$7.97
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
942 shares @ 92.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$941.54
$68.79
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
692 shares @ 89.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$692.28
$70.27
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
512 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$509.26
$10.26
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
494 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$493.94
$6.77
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
387 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$387.00
$3.87
NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
30000 shares @ 62.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$0.00
$-18.7K

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.45Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.35Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.78Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.20Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.48Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$5.77Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.01Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$8.97Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.21Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.68Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.00Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.05Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$6.41Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$47.40Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$6.41Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$2.1KJul 28, 23:10 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$77.52Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.43Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.61Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$30.93Jul 28, 23:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$93.4K

Trades

Buy share

100%

Window

May 18, 00:14 UTC → Jul 2, 16:54 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $5.0K

BUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$5.0K@99¢Jul 2, 16:54 UTC
BUYWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?$8.4K@79¢Jun 28, 19:12 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$5.0K@99¢Jun 24, 03:18 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$5.0K@99¢Jun 17, 00:53 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$5.0K@99¢Jun 15, 21:14 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$5.0K@99¢Jun 3, 01:53 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$5.0K@99¢May 29, 06:22 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.0K@99¢May 20, 01:26 UTC
BUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.0K@99¢May 18, 00:09 UTC

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

48 live trades, 18 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$5.0K

1 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

medium

18 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?

$8.4K · 9% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?9% of recorded volume$8.4K Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET5% of recorded volume$5.0K Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET5% of recorded volume$5.0K

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry12 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk59 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $30.57
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 23:09 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 23:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:11:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data