Happy-Riverbed
0xef0be3f635a80b8203128d1681c0f3c56b58c8fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-474.65
Realised
$-159.11
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 25?
213 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on July 1?
193 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.89
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?
90 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.07
- DOWN
BNB Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET
80 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-22.10
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 1?
76 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-21.07
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28?
76 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- NO
Will Solana dip to $120 January 19-25?
74 shares @ 94.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-70.24
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 14?
71 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-19.15
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20?
67 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will XRP reach $1.60 on March 13?
66 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-18.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on August 11?$118.89Aug 11, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on August 11?$116.75Aug 10, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 7?$20.00Jul 7, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 7?$19.46Jul 6, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.10 on July 1?$3.09Jul 1, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31?$102.88Jun 1, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31?$0.25May 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31?$100.68May 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28?$2.10May 27, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 25?$1.59May 24, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?$3.28May 23, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20?$1.71May 20, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?$63.33May 18, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?$1.83May 17, 09:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 29?$62.23May 10, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 28?$1.73Apr 27, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?$0.00Apr 27, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill $PENGUIN reach $200M in Q1?$0.00Apr 19, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29?$0.00Apr 11, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 1?$3.28Apr 1, 04:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $16.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 23, 09:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.