Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub
0xef13bdcecd9c13e4a07bb20924657f3b110263d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$341.93
Total PnL
$40.52
Realised
$6.83
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 82.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$27.95
$3.30
- YES
Will Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 52.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$26.10
$10.50
- YES
Will Meta say "Hiring" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 51.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$24.30
$9.00
- NO
Will Apple say "Liquid Glass" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 79.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$23.04
$-0.75
- YES
Will Meta say "Cloud" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 52.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$22.20
$6.60
- NO
Will Microsoft say "Activision / Blizzard" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 68.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$22.05
$1.65
- NO
Will PayPal say "Google" during earnings call?
21 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$20.99
$3.35
- NO
Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 47.5¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$18.90
$4.65
- NO
Will Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?
31 shares @ 55.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$18.69
$1.70
- NO
Will Apple say "Sport" during earnings call?
29 shares @ 62.3¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$17.52
$-0.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal say "Google" during earnings call?$17.75Jul 28, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal say "Stash" during earnings call?$4.12Jul 28, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?$15.90Jul 28, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal say "Agentic Commerce" during earnings call?$11.97Jul 28, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?$7.97Jul 28, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Liquid Glass" during earnings call?$7.26Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Liquid Glass" during earnings call?$16.73Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Helios" during earnings call?$10.91Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Activision / Blizzard" during earnings call?$5.51Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$6.96Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "Activision / Blizzard" during earnings call?$15.15Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$15.87Jul 28, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Sport" during earnings call?$5.20Jul 28, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?$5.99Jul 28, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Sport" during earnings call?$13.43Jul 28, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?$18.83Jul 28, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Llama" during earnings call?$15.91Jul 28, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$4.42Jul 28, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$12.88Jul 28, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?$2.55Jul 28, 04:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $8.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.