Agile-Realization
0xef3e27a7b7a844c7b8422c44205e5fd20e3deff5
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$19.76
Total PnL
$-675.58
Realised
$-107.64
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
55 shares @ 38.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$19.25
$-1.65
- YES
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
20 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.51
$-1.09
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
600 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-12.85
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
516 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.89
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
300 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?
300 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-57.40
- NO
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
286 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-121.53
- NO
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
262 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-33.94
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?
224 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-22.90
- YES
Will Santa deliver more than 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
185 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.66
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?$1.40Jan 16, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYVariational FDV above $1B one day after launch?$20.90Jan 10, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$35.00Jan 10, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$1.25Jan 1, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$1.20Jan 1, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$8.00Dec 30, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$13.36Dec 30, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$22.57Dec 30, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$15.44Dec 30, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$3.68Dec 30, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$0.13Dec 30, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$21.87Dec 30, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?$14.00Dec 30, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$19.60Dec 30, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$49.00Dec 30, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$48.50Dec 30, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?$2.70Dec 30, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$45.00Dec 30, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?$2.96Dec 30, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?$1.04Dec 30, 02:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $16.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 26, 05:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 21:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.