Afraid-Ale
0xef7da38c3a175c67df852cd5dc2e21879a5c2ed8
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$94.79
Total PnL
$-141.17
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.90
$-0.30
- DOWN
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 26?
36 shares @ 97.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$26.10
$-8.82
- YES
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
120 shares @ 11.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$1.80
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
110 shares @ 86.8¢·now 10.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.94
$-83.60
- YES
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
17 shares @ 20.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.86
$-1.52
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?
114 shares @ 26.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
62 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.23
- NO
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
40 shares @ 43.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$13.67Jul 27, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$40.73Jul 27, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? $0.57Jul 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? $37.68Jul 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?$30.89Jun 25, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$37.50Jun 20, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? $34.97Jun 18, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?$0.03Jun 15, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$29.87Jun 15, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?$1.66Jun 14, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?$4.60Jun 14, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?$8.42Jun 14, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?$1.79Jun 13, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?$33.61Jun 13, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$26.24Jun 13, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?$10.00Jun 8, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?$50.00Jun 2, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 4 and 5 days?$10.00Jun 1, 11:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ant Middleton summit Everest in less than 2 days?$30.00Jun 1, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days?$18.16Jun 1, 11:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $21.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 22, 01:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 08:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.