Fond-Warmth
0xef98c81d560325c8a57b9f63adc8ba5cda78b586
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.60
Total PnL
$-480.56
Realised
$20.51
Win rate
83%
99 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 29?
178 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.80
$-1.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 29?
155 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.39
$-2.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 29?
155 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.15
$-1.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 29?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.10
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 28?
155 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.08
$-2.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?
155 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.08
$-2.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7?
208 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 8?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 10?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14?
197 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.30Jul 29, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.18Jul 29, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 30?$0.02Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 30?$1.10Jul 29, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 29?$1.10Jul 29, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 30?$1.59Jul 29, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 30?$0.10Jul 29, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.15Jul 29, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 29?$0.68Jul 29, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 30?$0.18Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 30?$0.06Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 30?$0.24Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?$0.12Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 30?$2.00Jul 29, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?$0.40Jul 29, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?$0.35Jul 29, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 30?$0.96Jul 29, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?$0.02Jul 29, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or below on July 30?$0.02Jul 29, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 29?$0.58Jul 29, 03:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 99 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
99 closed markets, 83% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 99 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.