Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-251.49

Realised

$-23.09

Win rate

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

WARRIORS
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)
123 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-62.73
DOWN
HYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET
61 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-30.61
OVER
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5
20 shares @ 55.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-11.00
OVER
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
19 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026
$0.00
$-9.55
OVER
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
14 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-7.09
UNDER
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
13 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-6.30
OVER
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.30
UNDER
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
OVER
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-4.61
UNDER
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5
9 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-4.65

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)$1.31Aug 8, 03:51 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET$16.36Aug 6, 03:38 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET$14.24Aug 6, 03:38 UTC
REDEEMHYPE Up or Down - August 5, 11AM ET$31.79Aug 5, 16:12 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 5, 11AM ET$16.45Aug 5, 07:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$16.52Aug 5, 04:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$8.55Aug 4, 05:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Aug 1, 04:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.59Jul 29, 04:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$10.60Jul 26, 16:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.65Jul 26, 05:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.65Jul 26, 05:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 23, 04:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.30Jul 20, 16:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 20, 03:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$5.30Jul 17, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.74Jul 17, 03:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.64Jul 14, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5$2.58Jul 11, 03:44 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$2.74Jul 8, 04:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

5% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry97 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $4.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 6, 01:58 UTC
Last active: Aug 8, 03:51 UTC
Win rate sample: 21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:59:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data