0xef9f35da9830783680a7c8aa8790461d2ff6e446
0xef9f35da9830783680a7c8aa8790461d2ff6e446
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
1%
196 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or below on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 28?
930 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.71Jul 2, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 2?$2.05Jul 2, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 2?$2.05Jul 2, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 2?$2.06Jul 2, 04:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 1?$8.33Jul 1, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$1.04Jul 1, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$1.04Jul 1, 19:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 2?$1.04Jun 30, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 1?$1.05Jun 30, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 1?$1.05Jun 30, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?$1.03Jun 30, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30?$5.16Jun 30, 01:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 1?$1.05Jun 29, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 1?$1.04Jun 29, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 30?$1.05Jun 29, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 30?$1.05Jun 29, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 1?$1.05Jun 29, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 196 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
196 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 18:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 21:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 196 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.