0xefa20cff2978246db253bb8eaba5e48fb876430d
0xefa20cff2978246db253bb8eaba5e48fb876430d
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
43
Open notional
$104.99
Total PnL
$-70.87
Realised
$0.78
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$21.43
$18.43
- YES
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
19 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$19.23
$9.23
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
12 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.86
$5.22
- YES
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$10.53
$8.53
- NO
OpenAI social app before June?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$6.67
$1.67
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.25
$-9.75
- NO
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$5.41
$3.41
- NO
US recession in 2025?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.44
$2.44
- NO
Will Trump unfreeze Harvard funding?
4 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$3.75
$0.75
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
4 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$3.51
$1.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Artemis II launch by February 28?$3.00Jan 21, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$5.00Jan 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?$5.00Jan 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out by June 30?$2.00Jan 21, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?$2.00Jan 21, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?$10.00Jan 21, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$5.00Jan 21, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$16.00Jan 21, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Pope require 5–6 ballots?$3.23May 31, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?$0.00May 9, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next pop be elected in 2 days?$0.00May 9, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMHouthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July?$0.00May 9, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?$0.00May 9, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$0.00May 9, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMNew Pope announced by May 9?$0.00May 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?$0.00May 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?$3.51May 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?$4.00May 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?$6.25May 9, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Pope be from Europe?$10.00May 9, 01:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $5.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 23:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 21, 20:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".