Tempting-Reinscription
0xefb58867f595c20208ee47538bd623280e7a4999
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-578.16
Win rate
1%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
18000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?
9995 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?
1722 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iraq next?
868 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
484 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-31.94
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
408 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-49.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
401 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
279 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
200 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-33.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$3.15Mar 15, 01:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$0.00Mar 15, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$2.00Mar 15, 01:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$2.19Mar 15, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.00Mar 14, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.00Mar 14, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$5.00Mar 14, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.00Mar 14, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$1.00Mar 14, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$4.44Mar 14, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$4.00Mar 14, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$2.00Mar 14, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$2.84Mar 14, 22:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
66/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
83 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 12:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 01:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.