Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

171

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-19.9K

Realised

$-491.40

Win rate

171 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 171

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
5097 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-399.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
1262 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
1118 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
1011 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
1007 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
976 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
943 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
866 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
835 shares @ 47.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
824 shares @ 24.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.25Aug 6, 01:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.01Aug 6, 01:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.01Aug 6, 01:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.00Aug 6, 01:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.03Aug 6, 00:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.00Aug 6, 00:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.09Aug 6, 00:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.01Aug 6, 00:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.05Aug 6, 00:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.00Aug 6, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$1.02Aug 5, 23:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$1.00Aug 5, 23:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.01Aug 5, 23:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.00Aug 5, 23:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.01Aug 5, 23:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.00Aug 5, 23:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$1.02Aug 5, 22:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$1.00Aug 5, 22:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.03Aug 5, 22:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.00Aug 5, 22:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 171 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

171 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry39 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 25
Avg trade size: $1.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 5, 10:00 UTC
Last active: Aug 6, 01:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 171 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:44:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data