Improbable-Brief
0xf02013faaa356732a70c4ea533fe62d828cd7e69
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$10.28
Total PnL
$-8.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.88
$-0.02
- NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.60
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.09
$-0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.51
$0.01
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.20
$-0.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
1090 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?
650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31?
371 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?$1.20Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?$2.10Jul 22, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?$1.50Jul 21, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?$2.90Jul 20, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$2.60Jul 17, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$61.02Jul 1, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?$60.90Jul 1, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?$5.04Jun 1, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in May?$2.01Jun 1, 11:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.01Jun 1, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$3.01May 31, 21:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.00May 30, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?$5.03May 30, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$42.99May 17, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$42.90May 15, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$42.83May 14, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$42.71May 13, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?$5.00May 10, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?$4.00May 9, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $160 in May?$2.00May 8, 15:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $8.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 14:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.