0xf04f1e7ae12441f766fec0ace689cbc003494f11
0xf04f1e7ae12441f766fec0ace689cbc003494f11
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$10.19
Total PnL
$-0.74
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$3.03
$0.00
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$2.13
$0.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 18?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$1.98
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 13?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$1.02
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 18?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
2 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.14Jun 14, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$0.00May 31, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMTrump kiss by May 31?$0.00May 23, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6?$1.01May 22, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6?$1.01May 22, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$1.05May 22, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May?$1.15May 21, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.01May 21, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$1.05May 21, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May?$1.01May 20, 19:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?$5.26May 20, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?$1.02May 20, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump kiss by May 31?$1.04May 20, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump kiss by May 31?$1.01May 20, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?$1.04May 20, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?$1.04May 20, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump kiss by May 31?$1.01May 20, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House Press Secretary say "President" 40+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.75May 19, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House Press Secretary say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$1.77May 19, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House Press Secretary say "President" 40+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$1.02May 19, 02:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 16:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.