Early-Frosting
0xf0578c221843ccc43761d15a6e04ac3f3112ab54
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
101
Open notional
$872.71
Total PnL
$-70.33
Realised
$-9.43
Win rate
28%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 101- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?
114 shares @ 73.7¢·now 72.3¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$82.35
$-1.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?
152 shares @ 55.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$66.12
$-17.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?
88 shares @ 57.9¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$47.26
$-3.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 18?
52 shares @ 76.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$44.56
$4.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?
66 shares @ 41.2¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$37.05
$10.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?
69 shares @ 45.1¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$32.21
$1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?
100 shares @ 26.5¢·now 27.8¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$27.69
$1.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?
48 shares @ 60.1¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$26.90
$-1.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?
38 shares @ 66.1¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$22.43
$-2.92
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?
32 shares @ 68.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$21.92
$0.16
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?$1.29Jul 16, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 17?$2.81Jul 16, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?$1.55Jul 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?$4.70Jul 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?$10.00Jul 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?$0.01Jul 16, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?$8.97Jul 16, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?$8.40Jul 16, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?$3.96Jul 16, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?$3.77Jul 16, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?$1.00Jul 16, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?$2.00Jul 16, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 18?$1.90Jul 16, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 18?$1.99Jul 16, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?$8.58Jul 16, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 18?$6.46Jul 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 17?$8.64Jul 16, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 18?$4.38Jul 16, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?$10.42Jul 16, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?$0.84Jul 16, 19:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 18:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 19:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.