Grimy-Guinea
0xf09d6e4a402e7ffce50893c5732998509637ea41
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$81.82
Total PnL
$-7.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
15 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.00
$5.10
- NO
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
10 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$0.36
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
10 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.45
$0.45
- NO
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
10 shares @ 71.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$9.44
$2.35
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$8.85
$1.05
- YES
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.40
$-5.00
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.05
$-0.15
- NO
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$0.90
- NO
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$1.00
- YES
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
40 shares @ 25.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$5.00Mar 7, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$3.85Mar 7, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMMoltbook shutdown by Feb 28?$10.00Mar 7, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?$10.00Mar 7, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$6.82Feb 28, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?$5.00Feb 28, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?$10.00Feb 28, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.20 released by February 28?$0.00Feb 20, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.20 released by February 28?$10.00Feb 20, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.20 released by February 28?$9.40Feb 16, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$9.00Feb 14, 09:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 4 days or more?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMIran Strike on Israel by January 31?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$10.00Feb 5, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoltbook shutdown by Feb 28?$9.20Feb 1, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 4 days or more?$9.56Feb 1, 07:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $7.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 05:42 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 04:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.