Likely-Bias
0xf0c06ce6fecd65d7ba57efcf8afe1cb72b8f1404
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
North Korea x South Korea military clash by June 30?
3880 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?
2762 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-41.43
- YES
OpenAI browser by August 31?
1263 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
833 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?
758 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-262.67
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
464 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-65.00
- YES
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
263 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?
221 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Russia announces air truce by August 31?
103 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?$65.00Aug 15, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? $200.00Aug 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia announces air truce by August 31?$50.00Aug 15, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI browser by August 31?$200.00Aug 15, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$100.00Aug 15, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIran Nuke in 2025?$45.00Jul 30, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS military action against Iran before July?$537.03Jun 21, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?$0.00Jun 18, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?$32.00Jun 18, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?$14.29Jun 18, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?$100.00Jun 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS military action against Iran before July?$151.04Jun 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?$15.00Jun 16, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIran nuclear test in 2025?$15.00Jun 16, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Taiwan military clash by June 30?$41.43Jun 16, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran nuclear test in 2025?$16.50Jun 16, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?$42.49Jun 15, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?$69.52Jun 15, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?$32.48Jun 14, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?$31.92Jun 14, 21:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $116.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 10:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 21:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".