Sentimental-Asparagus
0xf0e02a54c235b27273fdc63fef80224e1280016a
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$365.45
Win rate
19%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$72.50
$-4.50
- NO
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?
100 shares @ 78.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$68.50
$-9.50
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
100 shares @ 72.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.50
$-6.50
- NO
Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?
100 shares @ 84.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$64.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
100 shares @ 73.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$62.50
$-10.50
- NO
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2028?
100 shares @ 80.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?
100 shares @ 60.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$56.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will Brock Bowers have 899.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$54.50
$-7.50
- YES
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
100 shares @ 58.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$52.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?$28.00Aug 18, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?$0.53Aug 18, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?$0.06Aug 18, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?$0.80Aug 18, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Digger" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$81.00Aug 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Digger" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$86.00Aug 18, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$21.60Aug 18, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?$4.50Aug 18, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?$4.50Aug 18, 03:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$5.40Aug 18, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$32.00Aug 18, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?$20.00Aug 18, 02:46 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.48Aug 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?$60.00Aug 18, 00:07 UTC
- REWARD$135.70Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?$2.20Aug 17, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?$2.20Aug 17, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?$84.00Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?$4.16Aug 17, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?$20.80Aug 17, 18:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
32 closed markets, 19% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $31.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 22:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 07:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.