Adept-Comfortable
0xf0fcd89c8e847c319129b8889a71d018b7a6d716
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
171
Open notional
$13.46
Total PnL
$-390.70
Realised
$-9.96
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 171- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
120 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.00
$-4.20
- YES
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
88 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.06
$-3.94
- YES
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$-0.60
- YES
Trump out as President by May 31?
2398 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 4?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
1008 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
633 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 8?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.05Jun 27, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.06Jun 27, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.00Jun 24, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$1.17Jun 24, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$0.01Jun 24, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$1.00Jun 24, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Jun 24, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.64Jun 24, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$5.84Jun 13, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11?$1.02Jun 11, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?$2.66Jun 10, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$2.00Jun 10, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$2.11Jun 10, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?$2.00Jun 10, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$2.00Jun 9, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9?$0.25Jun 9, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9?$4.61Jun 9, 14:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9?$1.27Jun 9, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9?$1.05Jun 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9?$4.00Jun 9, 14:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 12:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 05:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.