Deserted-Legging
0xf114b578bc08e5641d4cbfbb52e6e97b038d6ecc
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$381.79
Total PnL
$-17.52
Realised
$21.85
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$99.45
$49.45
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
57 shares @ 87.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.19
$-2.12
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
30 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.39
$-0.01
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?
30 shares @ 85.2¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$26.12
$0.38
- YES
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
36 shares @ 41.0¢·now 64.3¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$23.05
$8.35
- NO
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
20 shares @ 95.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.73
$0.61
- NO
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
20 shares @ 96.5¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.14
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 15?
17 shares @ 68.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$17.27
$5.42
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
15 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.58
$0.12
- NO
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
15 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.47
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$42.15Jul 15, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?$25.89Jul 15, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 15?$37.49Jul 15, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 15?$10.12Jul 15, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 15?$10.15Jul 15, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 15?$10.15Jul 15, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?$8.44Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$7.46Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$2.16Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?$2.56Jul 15, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?$5.75Jul 15, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?$2.70Jul 15, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$6.30Jul 15, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$5.27Jul 15, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$4.61Jul 15, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$3.14Jul 15, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 15?$16.51Jul 15, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 15?$12.03Jul 15, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 15?$20.19Jul 15, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 15?$14.98Jul 15, 17:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $11.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 22:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.